After three decades in education, 22 of those as a headteacher I’ve seen trends rise, fall, and occasionally come back with a new hat. But SEND has morphed from a challenge into a full-blown daily crisis, with a price tag that would make anyone on the Forbes rich list wince.
Since 2018, the number of pupils with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has surged by nearly 80%, rising from under 3% to over 5% of all pupils. That’s not just a bump; it’s a seismic shift. High-needs funding has increased by over £4 billion in real terms, absorbing more than half of the total increase in school funding since 2019. And yet, even this massive injection of cash hasn’t kept pace with actual spending.
EHCPs are legally binding. They guarantee specific support, regardless of affordability or availability. Councils are now running annual deficits, with the cumulative total expected to hit £8 billion by March 2027. The government’s solution? A statutory override, essentially saying, “we’ll ignore the debt… for now.” It’s been extended to 2028, but let’s be honest: this is less fiscal strategy and more financial denial. We have to address it and pushing it down the road only increases the damage. Especially when the SEND crisis is felt in every school right now as we struggle to meet demand, on top of expectations via accountability.
And here’s the kicker: as EHCP spending outstrips funding, there’s less money left for lower-level SEND support. So, schools and parents chase EHCPs just to guarantee help. It’s a vicious cycle that is emotionally and financially unsustainable.
Meanwhile, Ofsted’s accountability framework says, “Nothing to see here!”, particularly its new Inclusion criteria, which floats serenely above the chaos like a swan levitating over Mount Etna. It is as if they were drafted by someone who’s never had to find a teacher, a speech therapist, and a taxi, all before lunch. But it matters. There is a real touch of delusion over inclusion by Ofsted. For me it is the most open to an Inspectors personal beliefs, not the actions of the school.
The Clash: Accountability vs Reality
Let’s take a look at Ofsted’s Expected Standard for Inclusion — and by extension, SEND:
Needs identified swiftly and accurately
Tailored, effective support
Confident, well-trained staff
Empowered SENCos
Seamless local partnerships
Judicious use of alternative provision
It’s a lovely list — well done, Ofsted. And yes, every school should want this. Every child and every family deserve it. But let’s not pretend it’s achievable within current systems and budget. Which means it’s not just an accountability measure; it’s an interpretive dance of expectations which could damage schools through misunderstanding, misreading and misjudgment. If Ofsted are involved this is pretty much a guarantee.
1. Identification and Diagnosis: The Wild West of SEND
Schools are expected to spot emerging needs faster than a GP can say, “Your appointment is in four months.” But with self-diagnosis, private reports, and professional disagreements that make Brexit negotiations look like a picnic, schools often find themselves in a bureaucratic brawl before support even begins. Waiting lists for many critical diagnosis stretch well over a year. No wonder we say, ‘Let’s not focus on the label.’
And once a school is named on an EHCP, that’s only the beginning of the complex dance of transition. The tribunal system, while essential for justice, is emotionally and financially draining ; a process that often leaves schools and families battered before any resolution is reached.
2. Support and Provision: Aspiration… meet Austerity
Ofsted wants support to “reduce barriers.” Lovely. But SEND transport alone costs councils nearly £2 billion. Private placements? £3.7 billion. These aren’t just numbers; they’re neon signs flashing SYSTEM OVERLOAD, draining already stretched education budgets.
Local provision is patchy, mainstream schools are stretched thinner than a July budget spreadsheet, and “tailored support” often translates to “whatever we (Meaning the class teacher/ TA or the SENCo) can cobble together by Tuesday.”
Almost all of the growth in EHCPs reflects rising diagnoses of autism, ADHD, and speech and language needs. And this isn’t just an English phenomenon; high-income countries across the globe are seeing similar spikes. There is some evidence of genuinely increasing needs, but much of the surge is due to improved recognition of needs that were always there, quietly overlooked or misunderstood. Greater awareness, better tools, and lower diagnostic thresholds mean more children are being identified (and in turn – more parents want a diagnosis) which is a good thing. But it also means schools are now expected to meet a tidal wave of complex needs with the same, or in fact less, resources. It’s not that children have suddenly changed; it’s that we’re finally paying attention. The problem is, we’re listening with empathy but responding with austerity.
One of the most expensive consequences of the SEND crisis is the lack of capacity in state-funded special schools. Over the past decade, the proportion of pupils attending these schools has risen by half from 1.2% to 1.8%. But the infrastructure hasn’t kept pace. With demand surging and places scarce, councils have increasingly turned to independent special schools to meet statutory obligations. Between 2016 and 2025, the number of pupils with EHCPs attending independent provision tripled from 10,000 to 30,000. And while these placements are often essential, they come with a hefty price tag: over £62,000 per pupil, compared to £24,000 in the state sector. This shift alone accounts for nearly a quarter of the total rise in high-needs spending since 2018. In short, we’re paying premium rates for a system that’s running on empty. As someone told me this week; they were talking to the leader of a group of SEND independent schools who turned up in their Porsche and were very proud that they could send their two children to a private school. All on the same money that should be in the Maintained Schools budget.
3. SEND Transport: Unregulated, unsustainable, and ripe for reform
SEND transport is one of the most expensive and least regulated aspects of the system and it’s spiraling out of control. To the point that numbers become meaningless. Councils across England are now spending up to £2 billion annually on transporting children with SEND to school. In some cases, individual journeys with round trips stretching hundreds of miles are costing astronomical daily amounts. This isn’t just financial madness; it’s a symptom of a system with no strategic oversight. Unlike schools, which are subject to rigorous safeguarding, accountability, and inspection, many transport providers operate with flimsy regulation/ accountability, undertrained staff, and little understanding of the children they serve on a professional basis. The result? A fragmented service that often clashes with school values, lacks consistency, and leaves vulnerable children/ families exposed.
This is not a criticism of the drivers or escorts, many do their best in difficult circumstances, and I imagine will not see the profits via their wages. But without a joined-up strategy, we’re throwing money at a problem without solving it. If we invested in local, integrated transport planning, with proper training, oversight, and collaboration between education and transport services, we could reduce costs and reinvest savings directly into schools and transport. That means more staff, better support, and a workforce that understands SEND needs from the moment a child leaves their front door. Right now, we’re paying premium rates for a patchwork system that’s not stainable. It’s time to stop outsourcing responsibility and start building a transport system that’s accountable, efficient, and child centered and I believe this should be built for schools by the education community. Private schools seem to be able to do it. There’s got to be someone out there clever enough to develop local transport solutions to support an area and at the same time add to the education landscape rather than take advantage of it.
4. Staff Training and Capacity: Or lack of…
Training is vital. But it’s expensive, time-consuming, and logistically a big challenge. Releasing staff for CPD while maintaining safeguarding, ratios, and the small matter of quality-first teaching is like playing chess during a fire drill.
The expectation that every staff member is SEND-savvy is admirable. But without time, funding, and specialist input, it’s more fantasy than framework. At my school, we have over 60 EHCPs and embedding the right ethos takes years. It’s a constant process that touches every facet of school life. We often have to fail to realise we can make it better. That’s such a challenge in the high stakes accountability and SEND arena.
5. SENCo Authority: The mythical beast of empowerment
SENCos are supposed to have “sufficient authority.” In reality, many are drowning in paperwork, firefighting complaints (driven by Ai), and trying to be everywhere at once. Most are exhausted than empowered.
They juggle safeguarding, behaviour, home-school relationships, parenting, expectations, perceptions… Even if we gave our SENCos demi-god powers, they’d still need Sunday afternoon to catch up. The expectation that schools can do it all is simply unmanageable. But, every time I hear a new iniative about making life better, it begins with – School need to…
6. Local Authorities: A failing marriage
Schools are expected to contribute to local SEND strategies. But local authorities are often running on fumes, with deficits in their High Needs Block and limited capacity to offer meaningful support. They are desperately trying to come up with creative ideas to keep their mouths above the water line and rarely do we see sustainable change that imapcts across the sector becasue they do not have the capacity to do this with impact at scale anymore. Especially in such a fragmented landscape where some will and some won’t.
Just this week, I sat in a senior meeting discussing a new government-led partnership for vulnerable families. The Police would be there. Health and Social Care would be there. Education? Not even mentioned. We are the daily safety valve for children and yet we’re treated as an strategic afterthought. Or in this case, a no-thought.
This isn’t a failure of professional colleagues. It’s a flaw in government strategy. Someone needs to bring us together, quickly, and with real authority. Because at the heart of the SEND crisis lies a web of interconnected issues that are making our education system less effective by the day.
Ofsted did the Big Listen after the tragic death of Ruth Perry. It’s as if no one listen to the coroners report. But headteachers now face a sprawling landscape of accountability measures, in a system that seems to believe pressure equals progress. Our wellbeing? A footnote.
The new Inclusion Criteria, layered atop an SEND system already buckling under strain, feels less like support and more like a roundhouse kick from Ofsted to a profession already on its knees.
Sources and References used
- Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) – SEND Spending
- Local Government Association (LGA) – SEND Transport Costs and Pressures
- ITV News Analysis –
- Department for Education (DfE) – SEND Code of Practice and EHCP Data
- Ofsted Framework (2023) – Inclusion Criteria for Expected Standard
Old Primary Head 
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